Fact-Check | Video game simulation video from a game called ARMA 3 has gone viral with social media users claiming that it shows live visuals of the war between Russia and Ukraine. Mr Putin launched that attack after mass street protests in Ukraine that ousted pro-Russian . Hopefully a war between . | Rob Reynolds, Two figures for generative AI: the calculator and the mad scientists assistant, Another queen sacrifice might be in the works, this time in Virginia. 80% 0. It ranks in the top five nations which spend the most on their military. Sign in to add your own tags to this product. The surviving remnants were overwhelmed and destroyed in the air, some being shot down by long-range air defense systems in Russia, with ranges extending into Ukrainian airspace. I'm a huge history/geography fan, so if you're interested in those things aswell, this channel may be perfect for you! The Russian . As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its 373rd day, we take a look at the main developments. Front-line Polish army units faced the loss of between 60 and 80 percent of their equipment. Get a daily look at whats developing in science and technology throughout the world. In the two weeks prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Marine Corps University ran a four-day wargame to simulate the first several days of just such an invasion. ukraine in Experiences; ukraine vs russia war in Experiences; ukraine obby in Experiences; ukraine rp in Experiences; ukraine in People; ukraine in Avatar Shop; . Follow James Rogers on Twitter@jamesjrogers. . The images evoke scenes in Kyiv and Kharkiv as the Ukrainian cities face a growing Russian invasion. Still, the retreat was necessary in the wargame to ensure those forces were not encircled from the north and by forces moving out of Crimea. Putin and Lukashenko attended nuclear drills just before Russia invaded Ukraine. Feb 25, 2023 2:35 PM EST. NAVY PLANS 'BLUE FORCE' OPEN WATER WEAPONS STRATEGY FOR NEW FRIGATE. Ukraine and Russia explained in ten maps and charts. Over the holidays, stuck at home sick so just fell into not getting dressed. This realistic, facts-based simulation is divided into 3 stages: Nuclear War, Nuclear Fallout and Nuclear Winter. (U.S. Army photo by: Sgt Caitlyn Byrne, 10th Press Camp Headquarters). Simulations place people or bots in decision-making roles, in the middle of scenarios, if you will, and show us branching possibilities. This four-minute audio-visual piece is based on independent assessments of current U.S. and Russian force postures, nuclear war plans, and nuclear weapons targets. "The actual fatalities would be significantly increased by deaths occurring from the collapse of medical systems, as well as nuclear fallout and other long-term effects, including a possible global-scale nuclear winter.". Image: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg. The hope is that students will develop insights from these wargames that help them better understand joint warfighting. In the game, moving away from the line of control proved difficult, as retreats under pressure always are. Nathan Barrick, Ph.D., a strategist at US Special Operations Command, is currently a student at the Marine Corps War College and a former U.S. Army Russian foreign area officer. The crucial early decision for Ukraine was what to do with the 17 to 20 battalions arrayed on the line of control in the Donbas area. These same concerns appear to be driving the Ukrainians in the real fight. Russian missiles could reach the UK within 20 minutes. The Plan A simulation was originally prepared for an exhibition at Princeton's Bernstein Gallery in 2017 and was later made available to the public as a YouTube video in 2019. It is predicted that over 90 million people would be dead or injured in a war between the United States and Russia, Princeton University researchers discovered. s ability to catalyze a conversation without leaning on hyperbole or triggers. Long-term strategic competitions with China and Russia are the principal priorities for the Department, and require both increased and sustained investment, because of the magnitude of the threats they pose to U.S. security and prosperity today, and the potential for thosethreats to increase in the future, the strategy explains. This elicited at least one critique. Despite a few stark differences, the current Russian offensive is playing out in ways eerily similar to that simulation. At the same time, the Ukrainian team hoped to make Kharkiv a second Stalingrad, which would suck ever-increasing numbers of Russian forces into a bloody attritional fight. A former Royal Air Force chief has warned a nuclear war is no longer unthinkable as Russia continues to escalate its assault on Ukraine. The meeting comes as the US annouced a new military aid including tactical bridges to move tanks and armoured vehicles. The damage done to Ukraines air defense system was extensive, neutralizing the core integrated air defense network in the first two days, although the dispersion of Ukraines BUK systems assured a residual anti-air capability. The risk of nuclear war has increased dramatically in the past two years as the United States and Russia have abandoned long-standing nuclear arms control treaties, started to develop new kinds of nuclear weapons and expanded the circumstances in which they might use nuclear weapons. He says he has a beard like one. (thanks to Brian Tain for this post and for answering my question, as well as to Lennaert van Mierlo and the Association of Professional Futurists, especially Josh Calder and Stephen Aguilar-Milan, plus Viktor Motti. I find scenarios help us think about futures usefully. In short, unlike in the game, the Russian attacks were damaging but insufficient to overwhelm Ukraines defenses. Based on the wargames, a clash with Russia in the Baltic states would result in the rapid defeat of U.S. forces and their allies, Ochmanek told Fox News. Legal Statement. One must be very careful when using a wargame for predictive purposes. The livestream of a videogame superimposed with a banner that reads "Breaking News" and "Russia vs Ukraine war start (sic)" has triggered confusion online. Watch this video to find out what will happ. How will the western sanction strategy impact Russia? The defenses north of Kyiv had not broken and if supported they may have held for a considerable period. Russia was preparing to do precisely that when the wargame ended. Josh Calder shared this infographic with me, developing a sequence of events for three different ways forward: diplomacy, irregular war, and a conventional attack. In the ensuing battle, both the 27th SMRB and the Ukrainian 92nd Mechanized Brigade were destroyed. This project is motivated by the need to highlight the potentially catastrophic consequences of current US and Russian nuclear war plans. Today's video presents a war simulation, which maps out a war between Russia and Ukraine. Plan A shows how a localized nuclear exchange could quickly escalate into a global catastrophe. One of us ran the wargame while the others played the Ukrainian and . In diverging from Western interpretations of the Russian way of war, the wargame closely mimicked what we mostly saw in the first few days of Russias actual military operations. In 2019, Harry J. Kazianis participated in an American simulation of a war between Russia and the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization. At least six Ukrainian battalions were overrun, and the remainder endured serious losses to aerial interdiction en route to the Dnieper. Let us know in the comments section here. People have been creating scenarios and simulations of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict since it began in 2014, as well as some predating that time. At this time, the Russian fires complex (artillery, air, and missiles) switched its priority to destroying Ukrainian fire support systems. On this channel you can expect to see a large variety of mapping content! Russia-Ukraine War. Players take up the roles of Russia, the Ukrainian government, Ukrainian Separatists, the USA, and the European Union. Prosecutors allege the Kansas men conspired to evade US export laws starting in 2020. STRATFOR created several scenarios describing different Russian invasion strategies: The reality looks most like Hold East Ukraine. We lost a lot of people, we lose a lot of equipment, we usually fail to achieve our objectives of preventing aggression by the adversary, Ochmanek added during the CNAS discussion. As the Ukrainian government made a political calculation not to mobilize or move units into defensive positions, this map likely represents where most Ukrainian military formations started the war. Russia using claims about Ukrainian nuclear weapons to justify invasion, UK says. Market data provided by Factset. The consequences of a nuclear war for life on Earth would be "unimaginable", Glaser said. The resulting immediate fatalities and casualties that would occur in each phase of the conflict are determined using data from NUKEMAP. Blue denotes U.S. forces in the simulations. 69% 18. 100% 0. A simulation may resemble a game, or be one, as with wargames or business simulations. During the wargame, there was a lot of discussion about the employment of information weapons, including cyber. While it is possible, of course, that a nuclear exchange remains "limited" and the other side backs off or responds with conventional weapons only, there would be huge pressure on decision-makers to "respond in kind" and deny the side to strike first any advantage. The video shows footage from "Arma 3," a military-style video game. Several scenarios via the excellent Naked Capitalism blog. Our Ukraine wargame is part of a series of operational level wargames designed by Marine Corps University to support professional military education and help students develop an understanding of the many operational challenges associated with all domain warfare and Great Power conflict. 72% 0. A journalist who formerly worked in Manila, he's a proud new Canadian. Photos; Timeline; . The Russians attacking out of the Crimea are already advancing on Mykolaiv, a distance of approximately 150 miles from their line of departure in Crimea. AIR FORCE BUILDS NEW DEEP STRIKE 'SPY NETWORK' FOR AIR ATTACK. As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its 374th day, we take a look at the main developments. Based on the wargames, a clash with Russia in the Baltic states would result in the rapid defeat of U.S. forces and their allies, Ochmanek told Fox News. In the game, Russian operations began with a series of missile and airstrikes, aimed at eliminating Ukraines air force and destroying the countrys integrated air defense system. Kazianis is the director of defence studies at the Center for the National Interest, a think tank based in Washington DC. RAND Senior Defense Analyst David Ochmanek discussed the simulations at the Center for a New American Security(CNAS) in Washington D.C. last week. If you want to see more war simulations, let me know in the comments. Local children play in front of a church damaged during Russia's invasion of Ukraine in Kolychivka, Ukraine, April 27, 2022. Scores of war games carried out by the United States and its allies in the wake of Russia's 2014 invasion of Ukraine make it clear that Putin would probably use a nuclear weapon if he concludes . A scenario is small story about a potential future. In the case of this particular wargame, its near concurrent use with the actual start of the war presents an opportunity to make constructive comparisons and contrasts. Will Putin conquer the whole nation, or move on to new targets? Moscow says Ukrainian saboteurs opened fire against civilians on Russian territory, a claim Kyiv denies. This stands in stark contrast to what Russia has achieved in its actual operations. President Trumps fiscal 2020 budget plan proposes $750 billion for defense, up 5 percent from fiscal 2019. By David Leonhardt. was a computer rendering from a combat flight simulator originally uploaded by a YouTube user with just 3,000 . So, although the number of actual strikes made by the Russians in the conflicts first 24-hours tracked almost exactly to what was employed by the Russians in the wargame, the impact was substantially different. The Federation of American Scientists says online that these countries possessed roughly 12,700 warheads as of early-2022. After an initial burst of interest in the video, the view count didn't increase much until late February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine and Putin made remarks alluding to the possible use of nuclear weapons, according to Glaser. 1. The ripple effects of Russia's war in Ukraine continue to change the world. Patchy control. And how has the war in Ukraine shifted things for the group? 6:30 p.m. Sun 13 Mar 2022 08.46 EDT Last modified on Sun 13 Mar 2022 10.42 EDT. Since then, the simulation has received more than a million views. Multiple scenarios give us ways to see divergent possibilities. Putin's daughter 'flipped out' after hearing of father's big news, Russia-Ukraine: Barbaric chemical weapons used in Syria, 'Cataclysmic' history repeats itself as Russia set to default on debt, Vladimir Putin's 'emotional chaos' childhood laid bare, Russia defied by Finland: 'Clearly a part of the West', Putin wanted 'anti-EU' alliance with UK before Ukraine invasion, Russian losses: The REAL stats as Ukraine reveals startling figures, Putin fury at 'deplorable' Von der Leyen as NATO-Russia tensions mount, Europes dependence on Russian gas EXAMINED. This led to a major engagement about 40 kilometers northwest of Kharkiv against the Russian 27th Guards Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. Before NATO can impose its no-fly zone, Putin orders strikes on any remaining airfields and military assets around Lviv, Kazianis related. Still, their forces are greatly outnumbered, particularly in the air. If Putin chooses to use a nuclear weapon, experts say he could end up being the master of his own demise. The military escalation in the Ukraine came as an unexpected tragedy. The United Nations Refugee agency (UNHCR) protects and assists the refugees of this and all other conflicts worldwide. In our simulation NATO members closer to Russia, such as Poland and Hungary, were particularly worried that military action in Ukraine would lead to a large number of refugees - with potentially . At the time the game ended, this major ground fight all along the river in the vicinity of Kherson and along the shores of the Black Sea just to the south and west of Kherson was still developing. Russia-Ukraine war latest; Mark Rice-Oxley @markriceoxley69. These headquarters were just starting to come under intense pressure when the game ended. Going into the fifth day of the war, Ukraines air defenses are still functioning, even if at a reduced level of effectiveness. You can unsubscribe at any time. A NATO statement in October said: Steadfast Noon involves training flights with dual-capable fighter jets, as well as conventional jets, backed by surveillance and refuelling aircraft. This appears to be exactly what the Russian forces have been attempting in the first 96-hours of the war. Since current events gradually render these alternate histories, they may also serve as interesting historical notes. Between Russia and the US alone, scientists concluded a nuclear war would kill 3.1 million people within 45 minutes. Moreover, Russias capacity to concentrate vast ground fires artillery, rockets, and missiles still allows the Russian army to overwhelm the Ukrainians at any chosen point. Quotes displayed in real-time or delayed by at least 15 minutes. (U.S. Army photo by: Sgt Caitlyn Byrne, 10th Press Camp Headquarters). Russia and China have amassed large inventories of precision-guided cruise missiles and ballistic missiles that can reach hundreds of miles and strike military targets, the researcher said. All trademarks are property of their respective owners in the US and other countries. For a sustained investment of an additional $8 billion a year between 2020 and 2030, the U.S. Air Force could buy the kit needed to make a difference, he said, noting that similar sums would be required for the Army and Navy. The video is sped up, obviously, and the invasion clearly would not. There have been dozens of wars in the almost 80 years since World War II ended. I think this is at the small unit scale, but haven . ", "Of course, we had no access whatsoever to classified information and often used 'simple' rules when allocating weapons to targets.". A screenshot taken from the Plan A nuclear war simulation. The four-minute audiovisual piece called "Plan A", which was developed by researchers associated with Princeton University's Program on Science & Global Security (SGS), has seen renewed interest since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In the north, a Ukrainian brigade conducted a spoiling attack against Russian forces across the border in Belarus. Russian President Vladimir Putin placed his nuclear deterrent forces on special alert last month, something which UK Government ministers have dismissed as merely a distraction tactic from a war in Ukraine that is not going quite as planned. Quotes displayed in real-time or delayed by at least 15 minutes. Ukraines ability to score some early wins and demonstrate incredible acts of courage from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on down have generated an inspired defense, similar to Ukraines course in the wargame. Next War: Poland photo by Jakub Kircun), Pingback: Looking Back and Looking Forward Are We Ready for This? On the other side of the ledger, Ukrainian forces have counterattacked and retaken Kherson. In the east, the Russians were starting to encircle Kharkiv and the 8th Combined Arms Army was emerging from the Donetsk area to attack towards Melitopol and the Dnieper River. A video claims to show war between Russia and Ukraine before the former had invaded the latter. Take a second to support Bryan Alexander on Patreon! Assuming war, other scenarios appear. The scenario shown in the piece is a plausible one based on the available evidence. A simulation, in contrast, is either a human or computer representation of a situation, where people (or software) make decisions to drive that situation to an end state. This may include adverts from us and 3rd parties based on our understanding. What do you make of these? Russias military doctrine has a de-escalation policy: its response to a large-scale conventional attack would be met with a limited nuclear strike. Also, in the game, the air and missile strikes took place before the ground offensive began, whereas in real life the Russians appear to have forgone a strike phase of operations in favor of launching their strike campaign simultaneously with the ground offensive. While many observers were surprised by the Russian approach, it was the course of action chosen by the Russian player in the game. Air Marshal Edward Stringer, former head of RAF intelligence, this week said a conflict involving the use of nuclear weapons will be weighing on the minds of those making difficult calculations at the moment. Saturday, 4th March 2023See today's front and back pages, download the newspaper, order back issues and use the historic Daily Express newspaper archive. The wargame also generated substantial discussion of what to do with the five brigades Ukraine has in the western part of the country. In the final stage of the conflict, both Russia and NATO target the 30 most populated cities and economic centers of the other sideusing 5-10 nuclear warheads on each depending on population sizein an attempt to inhibit the potential for recovery. Powered and implemented by FactSet Digital Solutions. NATO carries out its own annual nuclear exercises, the most recent codenamed Steadfast Noon. More than 90 million people would be killed or injured in a nuclear war between the US and Russia if a conventional conflict went too far, according to a new simulation created by researchers. But it was almost the precise course of action the Russians undertook in the wargame. Liked it? For their part, the U.S., EU and NATO have warned Russia that . 2023 Valve Corporation. Mutual Fund and ETF data provided by Refinitiv Lipper. If history provides any glimpse into the future, the Russian army will eventually uncoil, absorb the wars early lessons, and renew its advance with grim determination. There were likely some residual survivors, but Ukraines ability to operate at the squadron level was neutralized. Its aim is to highlight the "potentially catastrophic" consequences of a nuclear war between Russia and NATO. Filter reviews by the user's playtime when the review was written: When enabled, off-topic review activity will be filtered out. Anyway, the scenario is relitively simple, but did take some time to make. Join my discord server: https://discord.gg/A799aXy Support me on Patreon: https://www.patreon.c. To the end of assessing the consequences of the Ukrainian conflict on the Russian economy, this paper distinguishes four different processes: the structural downturn of the Russian economy prior to the events in Ukraine ; the initial impact - i.e. Putin also orders a massive cyber attack on the Baltic states military infrastructure, thinking that NATO will use the Baltics to stage an invasion of Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin gets a sense that NATO is destined to intervene on Ukraines side. On Thursday (March 10), Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that he does not believe that the conflict in Ukraine would lead to a nuclear war. One wonders if the Russian failure to employ their massive fires capacity to deliberately shape the battlefield over an extended period before the ground advance began will be marked by historians as a blunder. Dr Heather Williams, nuclear expert at King's College London, told the BBC: Russia is heavily dependent on Chinese support, but China has a no first use nuclear doctrine. Read more about it in the, There are no more reviews that match the filters set above, Adjust the filters above to see other reviews. Moreover, at the cost of 30 to 40 aircraft, in the wargame, the Russians gained air dominance, as the Ukrainian air force was virtually wiped out by day three of the wargame. As the wargame ended, the Ukrainians were under pressure in the north, with Russian forces closing in on the eastern approaches to Kyiv and the Dnieper River, while also beginning to cross the border from Belarus into the northwest through the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. Russia hits European cities with nuclear weapons, drawing retaliation from NATO and the U.S. What is left is nothing short of an apocalypse, with what we estimate is billion people dead, Kazianis wrote about the result of the 2019 war simulation. - Need more user reviews to generate a score, Espaol - Latinoamrica (Spanish - Latin America). Tim Barrick is a retired Marine Corps colonel and the director of wargaming at Marine Corps University. There is a lot to compare here - attack aircraft, armored vehicles, surface-to-air missiles - but in general, Russia simply has more of everything. Feb. 21, 2022. Billionaire Oleg Deripaska said Russia could find its coffers empty already next year and needs investment from "friendly" countries to break the hold of . Below are ten infographics that break down the history, politics and economics of the Ukraine-Russia crisis. While the wargame did not simulate the strategic level of warfare, the international support garnered by Ukraines heroic resistance may, in the end, prove fatal to Russia achieving its aims. Putin joined Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for a major military cooperation event on February 19, by which point over 100,000 Russian troops had massed along Russias Ukrainian border. Simulations can also shed light on difficult and emergent decisions, as well as surprising us as the future often can. But as the conflict continues and Russian frustrations grow over their failure to rapidly collapse Ukrainian resistance, one can expect the Russians to revert to type and start employing their overwhelming superiority in artillery and airpower much more indiscriminately. Despite Russia's continued disastrous handling of its war of choice in Ukraine, the conflict's . Likewise, Russia carried out its own strategic nuclear drills just a matter of days before invading Ukraine. Putin joined Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for a "major military . You've successfully subscribed to this newsletter! Much of the Ukrainian air force was destroyed on the ground as a result of Kalibr and Kh-101 cruise missile strikes, special operations-enabled targeting and direct action, and air strikes. Click. The Russian ambassador to the UK discusses the conflict in Ukraine, a year on. In the wargame, the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army attacked on an axis aimed at the Dnieper River bend, intent on bypassing Kharkiv to the north while the 20th Combined Arms Army approached the outskirts of Kharkiv. When @BryanAlexander is futuring about you, youd better start futuring yer own dang self! The preceding scenarios depict futures as narratives. Militaries across the world frequently carry out exercises to practise the mechanics of nuclear warfare, but the results of such exercises are rarely publicised. Signing up for this newsletter means you agree to our data policy, comprehensiveguide to Russias war against Ukraine, convinced many Ukrainians would welcome them as liberators, blood and iron, in which Otto von Bismarck. So if Putin did use them, it would be incredibly difficult for China to stand by him. This may be where simulations and scenarios become useful. A Foreign Affairs article offers a range of outcomes following Russian success in Ukraine. Much of this is what one would expect based on what we know about the Russian way of war. Today's video presents a war simulation, which maps out a war between Russia and Ukraine. The GFP country comparison form is provided to allow you to make direct, side-by-side comparisons of any two world powers represented in the GFP database. The United States intends to replace its existing fleet of Minuteman III missiles which came into service in the early 1970s with a new . To Matt I'm sorry, and I' Facebook comments not loading? The scenario the group decided to test back in late 2019 was similar to today: Russia decided to invade Ukraine under the excuse that it is must defend Russian-speaking peoples that are being oppressed by Ukraines fascist government, Kazianis wrote in his March 4, 2022 piece. Crowd erupts in laughter at Russia's top diplomat after he claimed the Ukraine war 'was launched against us' An audience member shouted, "Come on!" . "A crisis like the one we are currently facing often results in miscommunication between parties, exacerbated by the fact that there remain very few active lines of communication between Russia and the U.S./NATO," said Glaser, who is an associate professor at Princeton's School of Public and International Affairs and Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering. As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its 374th day, we take a look at the main developments. Publicly revealing nuclear exercises and actually launching nuclear missiles are two very different matters. "Our team used independent assessments of current U.S. and Russian force postures, nuclear war plans, and nuclear weapons targets," Glaser said. Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. Russia says the top diplomats spoke on the move at a G20 meeting in India but did not hold Ukraine negotiations. That Zelenskyy remains capable of talking to his commanders and the outside world is encouraging and clearly has provided a strategic level boost in the information war and in Ukrainian morale. Foreign ministers meeting is marred by disagreements as Russia and China reject joint statement calling for end to war. Click 'COMPARE' to process the request. Legal Statement. Putin was warned he could lose Chinese support if he goes nuclear. One of us ran the wargame while the others played the Ukrainian and Russian forces. Fears remain that Moscow will launch a nuclear strike on Ukraine. A simulation shows how a nuclear war between Russia and NATO could potentially play out in a horrific scenario that would result in the deaths of millions of people around the world within hours. With much of Europe destroyed, NATO launches around 600 warheads from U.S.-land and submarine-based missiles at Russian nuclear forces. Typically we build them based on one or two driving forces, and often produce several together for comparative purposes. New video: https://youtu.be/gtC8T_iernk [Afghanistan] Subscribe and turn on notifications to stay updated with new uploads!Military simulationFollow us:ht.
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